So on the SP500 I have 2 outcomes for the next 12 months:
1. No Recession with a Forward EPS of 250 @ 20 PE = 5000
2. Recession with a Forward EPS of 220 @ 13.5 PE = 3000
What their share price is effectively doing is providing swinging odds with the even 50/50 at 4000, so a soft landing had a slight edge at 4300 and previously recession had the slight edge at 3700 and probably likely to move aorund the 4000 level until there is more conviction with economic news one way or another.
So on the SP500 I have 2 outcomes for the next 12 months:1. No...
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