Not sure if anyone here read about the interactions between Gen Mark Milley had with his counterpart in China, Gen Li Zuocheng of the PLA during the capital riots on January 6. Many assurances by Gen Milley to his Chinese colleague that America was not going to attack China. Many back channels like this exist at all levels, to prevent the launch of a Nuclear missile which makes it an extremely low probability event. I agree with you any Nuclear event would be a black swan & on a bell curve (a fat tail event > 3 standard deviations ) & would automatically shutdown most exchanges to prevent a major meltdown. The chances of a Nuclear strike right now are a extremely low probability not even worth considering IMOH due to size of NATO (defense spend > 1000B ) compared to the RF (defense spend 66B - billions lost due to corruption). I am now far more optimistic we could be seeing an end in sight, as the war got a lot closer to the folk's that live in Moscow & St Petersburg due to the mobilization. So far much of the cannon fodder has been drawn from the poor & made up of many of the ethnic minorities from the 21 republics.
(20min delay)