XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-4934

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/64154886/single
@Esmer

I continued this on the Bear Thread so I wouldn't clutter the new Bull thread. I disagree that the dollar being weak is due to RBA being weak on interest rates.

I have provided charts on the AUD, Interest rates and Iron Ore prices. None provide a direct correlation that I can see based on the available information.

In certain times of higher interest rates there seems to be some link to lower dollar, but is this due to the ResBank trying to cool a overheated economy? At present we have a similar circumstance with high interest rates and low AUD similar to 2002 and 2008. In addition we are also having a IO price which is trending lower. Match that to the buyers wanting transactions in Yuan and you have an AUD which will unlikely recover for many years.

2010 is the odd case, but that was after the GFC and China was still buying our Iron Ore while the world was in the dumps. Even with higher interest rates, the AUD was rising but this correlates to higher IO prices too. The recent peak in IO prices in 2021 correlates to the peak in AUD alongside a low interest rates.