The Fed is not all powerful. Often it follows not leads. Many of...

The Fed is not all powerful. Often it follows not leads. Many of its policy instruments are like a plane doing cloud seeding to change the weather.

They sort of work and more importantly, look like they are doing something. In a storm they have a lot less impact than everyone gives them credit for.

A pivot will hit the headlines but in a real crisis is mainly a signal that things are pretty bad. That is why the market often hits new lows in the 6 to 12 months after the pivot The storm has to pass first and the Fed's biplane up there sprinkling QE and softer interest rate angel dust is in part just for show - psychological reassurance.

There are many things they just cannot fix. The market has to work through them.