I truly believe this whole thing has been orchestrated and that is to filter the money away from the many to the few. At present there are a lot of shorts in the system which are not owned by the few and therefore to wash them out will require a few days of up. They also want to get as many longs into this to decimate that base so there is no money left to buy in at the actual bottom.
I do not disagree the targets you have set will be reached. Maybe they will let people make money on the way down, but I am not too sure of this.
I think the 200dma break will the trigger to get all the bulls into the markets especially those who haven't fully committed. It might also be a substantial amount higher than this level to really make it appear the markets are going gang busters and you bears are missing out..
And my post from a few weeks ago they need some people left for the Black Friday sales (or the perception of making a little bit of our last savings prior to the sale) which will never eventuate. When the US is 115% in hock (rough numbers) and there is nothing left, then I think it will be over. That is why I say around Black Friday sales as the final date but a few days earlier.
But as you say, it might just drop from here. The Financial Media which are controlled by those few, will put a spin on the narrative to make it appear the way they wish. The inflation numbers will have an impact and if there is a slight inkling that these have improved, you watch the media start pushing that narrative... "Its over. Fed will stop with increases". As you say, there are still a few perma bulls that need to be re-educated. They will turn too late and sell at the bottom once all hope is lost.
(20min delay)