lol... signing off.. as if...
A few people have made calls (including me) of targets being way lower than where we are (or were) sitting. It appears some people are taking those as a drop in 1 hit. When they don't get there, Oh gosh you are wrong... So let me clarify from my point of view.
Firstly, markets don't move unless the big players decide to make the markets move. If they want a 10% gain then they will sell the markets down 5% and go back the 10% lol. They make more money when things come down than when they just travel up. This is difficult to do when you are holding 5% of a companies equity with the Aussie markets and notifications etc. In US they have a 3 month reporting timeframe therefore have time to play and as we know, if you move the US and you move the globe.
Secondly, they need a willing base of people to sell to. The can't panic the markets else they dissolve. As such the move down last night caused panic, but then a sustained buying pressure would have been started by the instos and this is what stimulated the retail buyers to push it higher, with a slight assistance from the bigger players. They were net sellers overall though.
Thirdly, they are always in control. If their programs determine the buyers are thinning out or they have cashed in substantially, then it will be time to start dumping and then prices will drop hard. I think many instos were caught out when 2020 covid crash happened as this went from a peak to a fall in a few days (there was a slight spike top though). They were net sellers while this occurred until it started getting close to the bottom, when the panic really set in (check the volumes). Instos turned to buyers as the bottom hit and made heaps on the way up but not as much as if they had sold early. Why do you think the US markets went up over 100% last year and no pullbacks of 20% in two years? They missed the top sell prices.
This time is different in how it is playing out. I obviously have looked into Vanguard in depth so will use them as a guide. If you haven't then read this: -
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/the-vanguard-group-ceasing-to-be-a-substantial-holder.6415840/?post_id=57491257 In November last year they sold down below 5% threshold in numerous companies on the same day. Warning bells already. This gave them a few billion in cash. Those companies which are not substantial anymore do not require further notices when selling down but can be tracked when the top 20 are updated in another 6 days.
Last month there were limited changes and I think this will be different this time.
Looking at their US 13F filings which relate to shareholdings per quarter, their change in shares dropped around USD 13 billion between the June and September reports therefore mostly into cash. The report for the December quarter is due out soon, and I think this will show a massive drop in shares held. Overall, instos in the US sold billions in December and early January and obviously presently (refer point 1 above).
Look at the movements of the market from the top of mid August last year to the top of early Jan this year. They played the markets during that time, gathering trading styles and information BUT they gave everyone a signal that it is over (double top). If you failed to observe this, then that isn't their fault. During this 5 month period they refined their programs using current patterns and we are now seeing this play out.
I thought we would have a 1000+ point drop and then it would be over. Common sense would tell you so. I think
@JethroJ hit the nail on the head that they are using this process to push prices down, panic, then pushing up.. exuberance.
@onetricky highlighted this was the most volume from pre 2020 covid collapse. "Yes.. we bulls were so powerful.. we won". All manufactured and allowed by the instos.
So in summary, to call a level is more difficult than a 1 day occurrence, but it will get there or
maybe likely lower..
I will leave you with a final 8 min video. This highlights an additional risk and that is associated with the Euro. This might collapse. The explanation is better explained here: -
VIDEO If this goes... lol.. don't worry about interest rate rises ... kaboom
How many factors have to 'coincide' for people to understand how bad this whole thing is... Pass the parcel.. but it contains explosives so we are all gone... unless smart
(20min delay)