XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-8057

Yes, Hindsight Investor used the Fed's long-term inflation-adjusted targets for their fair value calculations (See here.) In June 2022 they calculated fair value for the S&P500 to be around 3,400. That was 16% below the current price then. In October the S&P500 dipped to 3487, just 87 points shy of their fair value target. I don't know anyone who predicted the bottom that accurately so early in the piece (5mths in advance)? The fed's interest rate targets have not changed and it looks like the market is beginning to realise the fed is not going to pivot anytime soon. So Hindsight Investor's target calculation still applies and we can expect the instos will using the same fair value target - meaning, they stay in bonds until fair value is reached and then they load up (or try to).