I always enjoy when people quote low unemployment numbers equate to no chance of recession...
As per the below chart.. Would you say when unemployment hits a low level and tapers off and then turns up, what happens next? (I will give you a hint - the grey bars are times of recession)
Considering that we are at the historical bottoms of unemployment, do you expect this to continue down (I am not seeing it as this is now going sideways)? If the Fed continues to keep interest rates high (which has been the continual rhetoric being publicly expressed), would you consider that unemployment will start to rise?
I am sure you have read in the papers, that a lot of corporate American't keep people employed. There is a delay due to the process (usually 3 months I believe but could be wrong) relating to redundancies. Would this explain the possible slowing down of the trend and flattening and therefore we could expect a series of bad numbers (being unemployment increases).. and this would signal a recession is at the front door?
I have pointed out that it has been shown the govt does not provide accurate numbers relating to employment (Oct 2022 was the overstatement of 1m jobs by Biden - this follows on from Trump which showed 500k new jobs overstated). As such, we could already be seeing an increase in the unemployment numbers (especially when you look at all their homeless).
Another point is the numbers that go towards this figure. These can be manipulated easier based upon status. How do more people with 2 or more jobs / casual / part time work affect this outcome.
(20min delay)