XJO - Bear Posts only (Factors which might cause the markets to fall), page-241

First 241 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Ewebute

5,754 Posts.

928

21/01/22

13:34

Post #: 59041061
Share

Originally posted by iminvestor101: ↑

firstly whats your definition of a crash? the evidence is in the historical charts, look at 2018 for example. bear market but not a crash. interest rates going up in march is a given but the number of times the fed will raise is uncertain.

as far as inflation goes, well thats a mystery neither you or i or anyone for that matter can predict. there is no doubt supply chains are adding to that issue and they will be eased over time. saying inflation only goes down on quantitative easing is anything but universal law.

the slow down in the the rate of change for ppis and cpis is there, just look at the last stats.

i guess the main question is that you need to provide the reason why we are expecting a crash. even yield curves are not pointing to an imminent crash, the widest followed indicators of a crash. we are currently repricing and taking some profit off the table.

i understand youre all excited because youve made a right call, but the markets are not in for a crash as that "crash" is happening as we speak. march 2020 capitulation was a crash. this is merely a correction where idle money will be deployed because TINA.

my money is for the indexes to see rangebound trading action with the top set in december.

and if markets continue to decline, it will probably cut the rate hike expectations along with inflation expectations which should coincide with continued improvement of supply chains.

anyone adding a short at the current levels is not getting the right price at all imo. "these markets havent even started to fall" sounds like irrational exuberance. markets havent even started to fall LOL. what do you call ~7.6% from the top on the sp500? plus the continuing rolling corrections inside all indexes....

Expand

Thank you for your additional comments.

I guess we interpret information differently. Check up on mine and other comments relating to the items you have mentioned PPI, CPI, affects of QT, recessions and interest rates. They correlate to negative times either upon us or going to occur.

If I say markets are going to crash, is that going to be from the day I say it. No.
Markets start to turn slowly, then without notice, plummet. If you are not poised for those types of corrections, then you miss the opportunities. I think we are seeing signals again of uncertainty and potential the downturn happening soon..

I hope you read all our thoughts but I understand if you don't as there is a lot of items pointing to negatives. I have asked many times for bull's to provide positives but those haven't been forthcoming.

Bull have posted China's interest rates falling is a good thing, but I think that is a concern. Interest rates generally drop when things are bad.. And in China they are.

They posted end of Omicron but we are still experiencing shortages of labour and China manufacturing hubs are closed.

I have also pointed out many times, I am 85% short and 15% long. If I am wrong at this point in time, then I can profit from the upside on certain trades to cover investments on the short side. I am covered while waiting for the main correction. Never go 100% in one direction unless you are totally certain and we haven't hit that stage quite yet.

Best of luck with your trading. I hope you win big

XJO Value at posting: 7,223.0
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply