Biden is desperately trying to reopen the Red Sea and Suez Canal...

Biden is desperately trying to reopen the Red Sea and Suez Canal by pounding the Houthis. We all know why? If the Red Sea remains blocked, and shipping costs and oil continues to increase, inflation will skyrocket (see below). That will put an end to rate cut hopes any time soon and a soft-landing. It also increases the likelihood of a severe global recession and a GFC and will put Biden's chance of winning the next election to zero.

We know Russia and China want Biden out and Trump in. To them it's the difference between no-contest takeovers and all-out Amageton.

Now, China and Iran are sending warships into the Red Sea. IMO, they are not going there to fight the US or to make peace. They will use Yemen ports to refuel and to drop off weapons to the Houthis. They can also provide intelligence to the Houthis to help them with their attacks and to avoid casualties.

So, expect the Red Sea to remain shut to shipping, prices to go up and the market to go down. How far down? 10-15% maybe? But if there is a GFC (which remains probable) expect markets to drop by 40-60%.





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