"why are investors so bullish and economists so wary"
. . .because the market has become a ponzi scheme and like all ponzi schemes it is fueled by suckers who swallow the hype, don't want to miss out and want to believe all is good.
The only way those responsible for the ponzi scheme can get out is by getting more suckers to buy in. When the house of cards finally collapses, those caught up in the scheme get smashed.
Those responsible for ramping the market know you only make money by buying low and selling high and by convincing the suckers to do the opposite. They also have to agree on targets, or else they would end up smashing each other. They also control the narrative which is used as a tailwind and work with TA to get the TA traders help propel the market to where they want it to go.
There is a high probability that the long term trend line (see here) is their target. They will need a monthly candlestick to end on that line, otherwise the TA traders will not consider the trend line reached - which would make ramping the market down more difficult. They will break the trend and go higher if they think the ponzi scheme has more fuel (suckers) and there is no negative narrative for the market to go down.
Looking more closely at the S&P500 monthly chart (below), the target appears to be around 5120 - which is about 2% higher.
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