happy new year everyone....I have been looking ahead to some dates for the coming year. I use the SPX as my reference index unless otherwise stated.
When we look at the post march 09 period we see a definite bull market for the US that ended on 2/5/2011....but for the XJO we had 2 seperate bull periods. The XJO topped on 15/4/2010 and that level has not been exceeded since. We came close on 11/4/2011...but no cuban. Sooooooo, with that in mind......
feb 27th 2012 will be a 38.2% time extension for the US bull market of 6/3/2009 to 2/5/2011...and March 1 will be a 100% time extension for the XJO bull phase of 21/5/2010 to 11/4/2011. So that late Feb period could be interesting as a possible low before the traditional April rally.
Then in May we have a venus retrograde date on the 15th. Many will dismiss this but consider the following. The tech wreck, after a nearly 3 year bear market, ended on 10/10/2002. This was the exact date that Venus turned retrograde. This is an astronomical event that occurs once every 585 days so there was a 1 in 585 chance of this long bear finishing on this date. Then the debt wreck bottomed on 6/3/2009...and again it was the venus retrograde date. I am no statistician but by my reckoning there is a 1 in 342,225 chance (ie 585 x 585) of this happening coincidentally with 2 major historical bear markets both ending on the exact date that venus turned retrograde....either that or stock astology is true :)
Venus will be in retrograde for about 43 days and will turn direct on June 27th.....I calculate that June 28th is an exact 23.6% time extenion for the peiod from the 1987 low to the 2007 top. I don't know of any significant venus direct dates in the market but I do note that a quick google finds a number of astro articles leading up to the 17/4/2009 direct date that were looking for the rally to end. Merriman was amongst those observers and he seems to be considered as the pick of the Astro chartists.
Also during the retrograde period we have May 28th which is a 50% time extension of the US bull ( a date I know Volt is watching). Apart from the obvious fibonacci implications this will also mark one Armstrong leg from the 2/5/2011. On a final note for that period we will also see a Venus transit during this retrograde period. Maybe Rambleon can tell us if that may be significant for the markets. I do know this astro event is very rare.
Moving on then I will be watching August 30th as it is 0.618 extension of the US Bull. My observations is that the 618 extensions seem to be the most influential of the time extensions. Jan 2010 and Oct 28th 2011 tops were examples of this.
And last but by no means least I will be watching Oct 2012. If we start a 630 trading day cycle from the 20/10/1987 (the 87 low) we get some amazing hits. Both the 2002 low and the 2007 high miss this cycle by only one day. The SPX high in 2000 misses by a few days and 15/4/2010 was an exact hit for many indices around the world including the XJO which has not exceed that level since. 630 is very Gannish being 7 x 90. It is also half of 1260 which is a number from the book of Daniel and as we know Gann was very fond of using biblical numbers in his work. 1260 days was a period of great tribulation in the book of Daniel and I think few would disagree that the world's financial system has been in a period of tribulation post 11/10/2007.....nothing bad lasts forever so here's hoping the financial apocalypse is behind us after 1260 trading days
anyway....good luck all for this year, I have been waiting for this year for a while now. One thing Voltaire pointed out to me long ago was the number of major lows that happen in "2" years (another Gannism if I am not mistaken). So hopefully we see a bottom this year sometime followed by some sort of decent bull market.
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