xjo - weekend charting and chat -16 may 2014, page-8

I just wacked in some daily data into the wave chart to take a longer Term View on the Gold Futures, & see what story it told (if any).

This chart ends up being vaguely a three day chart (3.19 days to be accurate)

I keep getting little hints that Gold is being re-accumulated,
but then it fails.....
which is all part of a major longer term re-accumulation I guess
('IF' that is really what is going on)

Anyway, the Red Zone above the current price is the 'breakout' zone, as I see it.
Until it can get above that, Gold Futures are generally locked into a sideways trading range (which itself can be traded, no doubt).

Looking at the recent action (relatively), the failure to reach the 'red zone' on the 211k contracts to the upside, showed that that rally was not particularly strong at the time.

So there is currently a bit of weakness above.

Then the 100k contracts to the upside (circled) is potentially a bearish E/R Failure, as 100,000 contracts to the upside,
should have made much more ground higher (compare to previous waves/volumes).
This would be confirmed with a clean break below the blue line on the chart,
until then it is not confirmed.

The opposing view would be that the 100k contracts is absorbing supply from the left, and after a low volume down wave (to ensure supply is exhausted), it will attempt to re-challenge the highs.

Time will tell ..... I lean slightly to the weak side right now, and wont be surprised to see it come off a little more.

cheers