Updating charts on some of the things that matter for me - (triple witching quarterly opex starts next week with USDx expiry on Monday)
XJO as Aus200 4hr spot w/grid w/fibs of local
- daily indic suggests this is half period here to any low from the local top (optimistic case) - potentially longer to 2011May scenario. - XJO main index below 5400/5390 has beta funds trading with a short bias IMO - upside only really confirmed on a new high from here for mine clearing the 5425 fib level. - min d'side target would be the local 50fib 5240 area;
VIX above 14.5 was never going to be a positive for equities here. Confirms risk is rising; now technically an uptrend with strong indics
China SSEC composite - note holding 1960 matters, it is the main uptrend support
- compare the same indics, trend much weaker - LOD of 1974 ominously close to the beta limit - possible it "might" still confirm a Feb low, but is v.weak
COPPER broke the 3.0 neckline and 2.95 50fib; local pivots are obvious (outside bollingers, maybe it bounces)
- events similar to Aug2011 if copper fails to bounce from similar level of oversold. Above 3.0 would confirm any bounce.
UST 10yr - the dominant treasury benchmark (price) (actually closed at 124.55, which is a major local pivot)
UST30yr confirms moving away from risk into safety (above 133 is top of a local bull flag)
FedRes the taper that has not quite started to taper
US tech sector has a long way to drop on any growing weakness, especially $goog. Early days IMO. Not to mention the ugly trend on margin lending as percent of US market cap. Downside still outweighs the upside presently IMHO.
If there is another reliable measure of industrial weakness, it has to be the nickel price; currently expecting it to ease down from $7.20/lb resistance here - further upside would support rebound in industrial sectors.
Any major equity rally would need to see the demand for UST's ease (lower treasury prices). Historically inflation and war are the only 2 factors that cause gold prices to rise. War (total or partial) temporarily, inflation more permanently. Despite all the rhetoric, gold is NOT a deflation trade - it is historically linked to monetary effectiveness and safety.
Real broader risk exists at the moment that is not defined by Crimea.
(20min delay)