xjo - weekend charting and chat, page-23

ECRI is meant as a leading indicator of economic activity not of the stock market.

In fact, the SP500 is a component of ECRI.

Since it includes a stock price index - there should be no surprise that ECRI is coincident with the major US market indicators.

It's well known that, usually, the stock market is a predictor of economic activity - not the reverse. The stock market tops out before it's obvious that a recession is upon us.

There's much more to ECRI than a stock market index - and some of the other components explain some of the unusual gyrations seen in ECRI. But, basically, don't expect ECRI to lead the stock market. That's not its intended purpose.

To read more about this, here's one viewpoint:

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Vrba-130402-Usability-of-ECRI-WLI.php



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