Many posts on this thread ignore the fact that when positive clinical trial results establish proof of concept for oncology drugs, with a view to satisfying an unmet need, supply of shares in those companies dries up. As
@slick correctly points out shares on issue is of concern for actuaries and fund analysts. Yet in the same breath I take a differing view to that put forward by
@kingkev, who suggests the stock may take time to run to 50 cents. As we discovered on the run up to .62, it's more about huge demand than excess supply, when it comes to driving momentum forward. Irrespective of traders, shorter's and those seeking small profits, when there is a massive build on the buy side, the share price of small biotechs can rally in a heartbeat. February 2022 and AstraZeneca shares are a prime example. When Big Pharma Astrazeneca
(NASDAQ: AZN) said that Enhertu prolonged survival and slowed the progression of metastatic breast cancer with low levels of a protein known as HER2, their shares rallied from around $55 at the start of the month, to over $71 in less than two months. Enhertu formed but a small part of AstraZeneca's overall portfolio at the time, but it still managed to push the overall share price up following strong clinical trial results.
All these shares require is a catalyst. Is Vaxinia to hold the key to such an impetus for Imugene? Time shall tell.
I think what is important though irrespective of market caps, SOI and trading machinations, is the need to focus on posts such as those of late from
@Jov88 and the You Tube video from Fortress's CEO posted by
@Taureanbull. The market size of the industry segment is crucial to assessing a stocks prospective valuation (see
@Jov88 above). Whilst as noted in the aforementioned YouTube video market forces, macroeconomic conditions and M&A activity all play a role in SP movement. Yet the underlying fundamentals of a biotech stock and the market segment pertaining to these fundamentals is possibly the most important factor. You can have the worlds most successful drug, yet it if only treats extremely rare diseases, impacting a small percentage of the population, it's always going to be restricted in value. Conversely if you have clinical trial for a drug that aims to treat solid tumours in cancer patients, a huge market with a burgeoning unmet need, then that's a whole different ball game.
Imugene does have many shots on goal. Though as 2023 has shown CF33 Vaxinia does have the potential to render the excessive SOI and extraordinarily high retail trading base, irrelevant. If the world awakens to a new virus that can kill any type of cancer in 2024, the rest is sure to be summonsed to the gallows of history. No amount of shares on issues, day trading, mismanagement or lack of Big Pharma interest, is sure to hold the share price back. At present some of the most effective drugs in treating cancer are running out of patent life. Big Pharma is left to pick up the scraps from a number of ADC's and other delivery mechanisms incapable of providing the silver bullet required to actually produce prolonged complete responses, other than in blood cancer indications. Medical practices such as chemotherapy and monoclonal antibodies, (i.e., wrought with side effects and extraneous costs,) still exist as the standard of care in a relatively outdated oncology treatment arena screaming out for safe, cost effective solutions to what is a growing problem. Governments, medical authorities and pension schemes alike are suffering miserably from an ageing population in which cancer is becoming an indefatigable disease sure to break the budget of treasurers the world over, unless solutions are discovered in the ensuing years.
This thread is designed to discuss share price targets in the next 12 months for Imugene. If Vaxinia, (as I anticipate), is shown be effective in treating a broader array of solid tumours types than Bile duct cancer alone, and perhaps gastrointestinal cancers, I myself could not see how Imugene would be trading this time next year. Less than a month ago AbbVie, which sells widely-used drugs like Humira and Skyrizi, said it planned to buy cancer drug developer ImmunoGen for $31.26 a share in cash, marking about a 95% premium to Immunogen’s closing price at the time. Are we to assume that if Vaxinia does prove successful in treating a number of cancer indications that Imugene would not be the subject of a takeover play from cash rich Big Pharma's such as Abbvie, seeking to strengthen their war chests for the biotech battles ahead? Are we to assume Imugene shareholders would not accept a takeover offer similar to that of Immunogen, given the overwhelming majority of IMU shareholders are retail holders? I think not. Although ideally I would like to see Imugene live to fight another day, and realise its true potential in the oncology arena, I do believe the dye is cast. Big Pharma is surely just waiting to dot their i's and cross their t's when it comes to Yuman Fong's safe and inexpensive novel technology. IMO they would be prepared to pay 10, 20, 30 why even 50 billion for such a drug if the clinical trial results stack up. Unfortunately retail holders may not have much say in the matter, come the final hour.
I have already released countless share price forecasts, valuations and analysis based on hours of stock specific and industry research. My SP prediction for 2024. Predict the unpredictable.
WMHB
DYOR Seek investment advice as and when required Opinions Only
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