Thanks for the reply TB & WMHB. Excellent points. Regarding...

Thanks for the reply TB & WMHB. Excellent points.

Regarding running risk-adjusted net present value (rNPV), CFs like @fyffee are the industry standard, and I have done these in the past for IMU. The difficulty at the moment is not having a clear idea of the scope of CF33. Considering it could have dozens of indications it could be effective in, running these calcs with any weight behind them would be difficult this early on in the piece.

What is worthwhile to consider, though, is exploring the Bile Duct/Gastrointestinal cancer revenue potential.

A study published in 2021 found that worldwide, in 2017, there were 210,878 new cases of Bile Duct and gallbladder cancer (GBTC). Although gallbladder is not the same cancer, from a treatment standpoint, they have the same standard of care, chemo (Keytruda has also just been approved to be used with chemo). It's not unreasonable to suggest that if CF33 is efficacious in Bile Duct cancer, it could also be efficacious in gallbladder cancer. The prognosis is very poor for pateints across the board:

"The median survival of patients with unresectable biliary tract cancer is approximately 3 to 6 months. Even after complete resection, the 5-year survival rate remains relatively low, with the highest survival rates ranging from 8% to 40%." (study found here)

In the US where Keytruda has been given the nod for GBTC there are 23,000 diagnoses each year. At $100,000 USD pa (Keytruda is $150k USD pa) for CF33 per patient in the USA the very round numbers look like:

23,000 X 100,000 USD = $2.3 billion USD pa

Using this number for 'peak sales' figure then the buy out price of CF33 for GBTC in the USA alone is:

Between $9.2-11.5 Billion USD (4x & 5x industry multiple).

Or split down the middle (4.5x) and converted to AUD, you get: $15 Billion AUD value

Thats for one indication, and only in the US market.

If we consider the global patient population for GBTC of 210,878 cases, to extrapolate the potential market here is much more difficult as although cancer diagnosis is better that its been, access to treatment across all countries differs greatly. If you were to assume a maximum of 20% of that global number would be able to access CF33 over its patent life (therefore a proxy for peak sales) then you would be looking at potential patient number at around 40,000. Doing the same basic calcs you would get to:

40,000 X $100,000 USD = $4 billion pa

Using multiple of 4.5 = $18 billion USD or $26.4 billion AUD.

Once we get more data read outs from the Vaxinia trial we should be able to add more meat to these numbers.

But ultimately, you get an understanding as to why I said my rose coloured glasses estimates were $30billion+ AUD.

When you consider other hard to treat cancers like those below that are in desperate need for more effective treatments, you start to get an appreciation for the potential scope and commercial outcomes associated with CF33/OnCARlytics.

~200,000 diagnosed with TNBC
~313,959 diagnosed with Ovarian Cancer
~495,000 diagnosed with Pancreatic Cancer
~30,000 diagnosed with Mesothelioma
~800,000 diagnosed with Liver Cancer

It is also worth considering that gastrointestinal cancer cases annually sit around 5.4 million, with colorectal contributing to nearly 2 million of these cases. I mention this because of the below from IMUs CF33 'early progress' announcment:

"7 patients with gastrointestinal cancers who received CF33-hNIS alone including 3 colorectal cancer, 2 bile duct,1 pancreatic and 1 liver cancer showed positive treatment effects, with a disease control rate (all CR, PR and SD) of 86%"

86% disease control rate in this cohort of patients is significant, but almost as significant and something that should underpin any discussion around effecacy of CF33/onCARlytics is the fact this was achieved with little to no side effects. This fact, is not only hugely significant for patients but when it comes to FDA/approval it bodes extrmely well for early/accelerated/priority approval.

Of course we still need a lot more data to be released from the Vaxinia trial to really get an idea of scope and therefore potential here. But it's looking good from where I am sitting.

Cheers.