xmas rally ? may see us hit 60c , page-2

Hi Mission,

Had to extrapolate your channel a bit, but looks like we"ll still be towards the bottom of the channel when we get to 60 on the 5 Feb, so some more upside.

Yes I worry more about the yanks than Dubai (storm in a tea cut, bar a few bankers caught with more dodgy paper squealing like stuck pigs).

However we need to remember China uses about twice as much copper as the US, maybe more. Plus very importantly China has had nearly eighteen months to adjust to the new reality, and that is probably more like a 5 year adjustment period in a Western country - no wonder they are back on track.

Also worth noting India and Brazil in particular booming again. The relative importance of America as a consumer was artificially exaggerated (by debt fuel) 2 years ago. I am going to trust the emerging economies to take up the slack, as they are showing every sign of.

Which is not to say that I believe copper will stay above, or even near $3. Looking at the 5 year chart as a guide to the future it might even be foolish to dismiss briefly retesting $2, although I do believe we are now under some sort of Chinese price regulatory regime with less volatility, which makes me somewhat braver. I keep my eye to China, but not to the daily/weekly noise from there.

Rising channel, hard to disagree (until it's not anymore). Some predictable newsflow (production, QR,BH)to support it too.

EL