Xmas sales, page-13

WANTY,
Good thoughts. A post like this always makes me run through my numbers. No doubt about it, CSS is racing the train across the tracks...the kind of stuff I love to invest in. I think it is a little better than what you state though.

Per their September 30th Release: 322 tons sold in 3 months. That is 107 tons/month in sales
Per their November 30th Release: 594 tons sold in 5 months. That is 118 tons/month
Therefore September to November: 272 tons in 2 months. That is 136 tons/month
That puts them at 1632 tons/year at the last calculable rate. (136 x 12)
I think it is safe to say that that monthly yield will continue to increase some.

Now if they keep up that month over month growth rate, they actually do hit 2000 tons pretty handily by the end of the fiscal year, but that is, of course, pretty fanciful.

Cash expenses last year were 29M
Cash expenses this year will be higher. I'm gonna guess around 36M. Maybe even 38M.
This puts cash expenses at 3M+ per month. At $14/kg they will need to sell ~215-230 tons/month to break even.
They are probably burning cash at 1M/month if they are selling 136 tons/m right now.
They have about 12M in liquidity between the refund and the credit line.
So they have about 12-18 months to get to 215 tons/month or close enough show that they are a viable enterprise. Really close call but not dire. If they do not grow or if there is a hiccup...it gets dire quickly.