XPE Charts, page-162

Lets not get too hung up on gaps here. Not sure who came up with the "95% get filled" business but I'd love to see both where that figure came from and how they came to calculate it. You need to remember there are gaps, and there are gaps. The only sure-ish thing about gaps is when they do move towards getting "filled" then the SP will likely behave a certain way, but only when they make that move, depending on the style of gap there can be various arguments made as to the likelihood of a SP moving back to it. Try to research gap theory and it's pretty hard to come up with reliable information. There's a reason for that.

Gaps are very much based on market psychology (in a way all charting is). In a very basic sense a gap up reveals an area where support has not been developed, and also a region within which many buyers tend to have hard or soft stops, so once a SP reaches the gap "space" it can tend to move down fairly quickly, but that's only if the SP reaches the gap in the first place. I think many people tend to confuse the more predictable movement of a SP within a gap with the likelihood of it actually occurring in the first place. It makes great conversation when it occurs but I think the frequency of it happening is overstated.

I would in-fact argue that there is no gap to comment on here, as XPE recently traded within the price range everyone is talking about. Thus we already know there is buying support and a much lower likelihood of supply successfully testing that.

This doesn't even take into account the FA side of things, which is obviously quite bullish.