The difficulty here is the entanglement of TA and FA.
The bullish case with respect to FA has not changed, but needs time to play out.
No case exists for more than a short time with TA, because TA only tries to harvest what happened in the past and insert it into the future.
I would hazard a guess that a vast majority of trades recently have nothing to do with FA- in fact I would go so far as to suggest that most trades have been done by people who know nothing about the company at all, and just follow trends.
When the fundamentalists go to the point of sitting on their hands, the sp loses direction because it is ruled by the TA indications, which blow in all directions depending upon who happens to be buying or selling the stock at a particular moment, T+2 requirements, jumps to the next big thing, or dumping as demand flattens out (read: short term traders' purchasing exhausted).
Long term holders don't buy into this, as the time exists to pick the moment - I am more than happy to buy off a day trader exiting at a loss, or an Insto selling at a loss to try to push down. The recent couple of days is perhaps the return of longer term holders buying on the low point, reducing averages (I know I did).
Elit's previous FA analysis has always been accurate, and the research and logic applied have not been invalidated. The reality is that the FA conversation does not change much, and so loses impact over time (same ol', same ol' ....
), whereas TA is always a current conversation, ever changing and useful only for picking an entry or exit point in the current few minutes of market gyration. Thus, the current
or
, or next week's
or
becomes the apparent sentiment of any investor discussing it - and how the market perceives the stock. A self-fulfilling prophecy.
The disappointing thing is that the almost exclusive application of TA to a share price means that inclusion of future prospects are removed, and the price only reflects the current fiscal reality of the stock. Hence, we find ourselves back at 3cents, within the capacity of penny traders to continue to inflict TA logic on the share price. So ... Elit's comments are fair ... the price will continue meander in this day traders' playground until the company manages to produce an announcement which takes it out of this realm, and re-aligns (to some extent) TA and FA.
That means the share price is dependant upon the real world, and the time it actually takes for things to happen, unlike the fantasy world of TA. The good part is, that moment gets closer every day.
