Following on from the topics discussed in a couple of previous posts on different threads (refer to above links and note that I have posted in General Topics on this occasion to address both FA and TA), there have been a few interesting developments that may be helpful to those who are focussed on shorter term trends and probabilities. Longer term there seems to be less conjecture about which direction the SP might go, assuming the excellent fundamentals remain intact and indeed improve as anticipated.
Firstly, you may recall in the above 'strength in numbers' post I mentioned that the major US indexes (after a 5 day decline on Brexit fears) were showing potential for a reversal to the upside late last week. I also mentioned that it looked like Gold had put in a local (if not medium term) top, however I added that confirmation of this would be required in the coming days.
Well it appears that we received confirmation overnight with Gold pushing substantially lower on increased volume. The general rule of thumb - although certainly not always the case - is that Gold (as a risk off asset) behaves inversely to the US stock market (risk on) and whilst the US indexes are still consolidating (only a small move higher overnight) it would appear that a move to the upside for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq indexes is now more probable in the coming days, given Gold's confirmation of a local or medium term top. This should stimulate investor confidence on our local market despite the looming election.
Secondly, I mentioned that we were due/overdue for an announcement based on the past frequency of material announcements from our management.
Well tomorrow marks the ninth trading day since our last material announcement pertaining to Xped's core business (meaning today's announcement re: delayed sale of Sokoria does not count).
The only other two occasions that a greater gap between material announcements has occurred - i.e. since RYG announced that it would acquire Xped holdings on 26/10/15 - was over the Xmas break and also prior to re-listing;
23/12/15 - 11/1/16: 10 trading days (16 calendar days)
18/2 - 3/3/16: 10 trading days (14 calendar days)
and now
9/6 - 23/6/16: 9 trading days (14 calendar days).
Thus based on the above stats and the information yet to be released to the market as per the below timeline that I have updated (note the below is not an official company update), we are very much overdue for a material announcement this week or early next week, remembering that this Friday or beyond would be an equal or outright gap record if no announcements were released prior to then (very unusual occurrence).
Thirdly some of you may recall that I highlighted a couple of FA & TA similarities between XPE and RAP charts in a recent post (refer to first link at the top) with the view that RAP is perhaps our closest peer on the ASX.
Below is an updated FA snapshot comparison and it is worth noting that RAP surpassed the $300 million market cap mark yesterday (49.5c cents per share high and double that of Xped's current market cap of @$150 mil). The new high in the SP was due to a positive 'Preliminary Results from Adult Clinical Study' announcement released on the same day.
The takeout from this is that although RAP remains a zero revenue company (until next year I believe), the improving fundamentals and outlook for the company (via further validation of its technology) continues to drive the SP to new heights, as opposed to revenue specifics. Therefore if/when XPE issue an announcement(s) of similar importance in the days to come (i.e. that further validates its technology on a large scale), then I think we could anticipate a market cap. that rivals our closest peer.
Furthermore it should be noted that although my XPE chart comparison to RAP (highlighting a potential three wave correction similarity) sparked some controversy on HC and at least one other social media platform last week, it and the giant Cup and Handle continuation pattern are both still valid at this time (refer to the charts thread link above to view those charts).
Finally, I've updated the XPE daily chart to include today's close. Note that the chart is on a 'closing basis' to highlight a couple of major current 'end-of-day' support and resistance areas.
GLTA and note that the above is my opinion only and may prove to be incorrect (or invalid) and therefore should not be considered as advice of any kind. Please DYOR.
Cheers
Elpha
XPE Price at posting:
7.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)