Xstrata have stated numerous times that they want to be a major player in Platinum. They are not pursuing Anglo for at least 6 months. In the article they also hinted that they were not going for Lonmin. That leaves NKP.
However, at the end of the day, no one (and I mean NO ONE) will know for sure until they exercise the option.
But even putting the exercise issue aside, NKP on all metrics are cheap. MCAP around $3/ounce of platinum is ridiculous. And if Xstrata do not exercise, I am sure someone else will.
Ralph
NKP Price at posting:
39.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held