Great post hotfire. I like your logic and is roughly where I am at. However, for those that think that because we get 26c for xstrata's 51% share, that does not mean that we will get another 26c added to our share price. That is before finland. The market in our eyes has got aoh's valuation completely wrong and is more or less just going off Finland value. When and if this announcement comes out, what makes you think that the market is all of a sudden going to logically add all the components together to get at a fair shareprice. It just doesn't happen! I think we would get half of our half (13c) added to the 26c cash component plus about 10c for Finland. So I see 50c max unfortunately - just look at past deals on other stocks (no examples come to mind immediately but I'll have a think).
As for those people that want to go alone, this is one of the more ridiculous things I have read. Reminds me of the Sdl thread. Do you realise that there will be massive dilution, a heap more risks and will take years and years to get back to 50c - if ever. Don't fall in love with a stock, take the money and move on. Plenty out there - go buy an iron ore stock, they could use in their court!
Finally, what is the love affair with AC? I am in it because of Kevin moloney - he has built successful businesses in the past. Not sure why AC is on such a pedestal - so what he made Swiss cheese out of some ground he inherited but I'll take my hat off to him for seemingly getting Finland running smoothly. Why do you guys have so much faith for him to cut the right deal? What happens if he is too stubborn? Why does everyone think he is so cunning? The shareprice has not done a bloody thing in years!! This story has not been sold well at all.
AOH Price at posting:
26.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
