re: ml and tlw
"But Pacey, surely the opposite logic applies too, if people are not prepared to sell on-market at $2.02 why will people be prepared to sell in the offer at $2.02."
The only reason for selling a portion of your shares at $2.02 in the offer is so that you have the right to get 40% of them at the tullow swap price. If Tullow is trading at a price that makes one swapped share worth, for example, $2.27, then your average payout will be 0.6 * 2.02 + 0.4 * 2.27 = $2.12.
As a result the day before the meeting someone who does not want to participate in the share swap would be better off selling on market because they will be able to sell at a price just slightly below the average payout price.
HDR shares are currently trading below the average payout price based on Tullows share price, but that is because there is a risk premium associated with the time left to go to the takeover. As that time reduces so the HDR share price should more closely match the average payout price i.e. 2.02 + 0.4 *(Tullow share conversion price - 2.02).
If the HDR share price goes above that, and it hasn't yet other than the first few days after the announcement of the takeover, then you will know that there is another player involved.
HDR Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
