At times when I really want to punish myself, I visit Macrobusiness. The guys there point this out every chance they get.
The problem is, the "GDP to Mining Capex" analysis is limited. Sure there's reversion to the mean, but there are so many other points to consider (which I'm not qualified to answer in any way - I haven't done the homework):
- Are we stealing market share from other countries? (Political risks, running out of natural resources, etc.)
- Is there a shift in types of resources used (as %), causing a greater amount to be Aus based? i.e. More IO relative to entire resources market
- As consumerism ramps up in China/India (and other countries), is there simply a greater demand per capita than there was before the recent commodities boom?
Further, this doesn't really include much of the maintenance/operations work, as some of it is not capitalised. Given MND's revenue split is now approx. 56% to 44% (Eng constr. to maintenance), it doesn't give the full picture.
With all that said, it is quite a steep drop to revert to the mean...
XYZ, page-12
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