My estimates for FY22 NPAT, cash flow and dividend are similar....

My estimates for FY22 NPAT, cash flow and dividend are similar. Cash flow might be a bit lower because YAL will most likely actually pay company tax for the first time in its life in the second half of 2022. I think the absolute minimum dividend is $1.5 and agree to could easily be higher. The level of franking will be interesting. It is such an easy company to model - the key uncertainty is the realised coal price.

MQ23 is now partially locked in (which is likely to be another big quarter). At a guess, FY23 is likely to realise lower average prices than FY22 (only because prices have been so high in 2022) which is likely to at least be partly offset by higher production (driven by less rain). Rising costs only have a small impact on cash flow/NPAT. My guess is that the way the world looks at the moment, FY23 is likely to be another big year but may be not as big as FY22.

Consequently, can't understand the falling share price. The market seems to think that thermal coal prices will most likely collapse in FY23 (say dropping to $US100 per tonne or less by end FY23). I am betting that this will not be the case and coal prices will remain elevated for a number of years because of a lack of a supply response given the difficulties of getting new coal projects developed and issues around Russia and Europe are not going to disappear for years..