Totally agree it's undervalued, has been for a long time now, but even more crazy currently. I'm estimating a forward PE of 4, vs a longer term avg of about 8-9 from when they last made reasonable profit. So saying, it has been a while between drinks for YAL and problem is always on an uber cyclical like YAL how long that profit will last, vs the debt they have.
Not sure how you got to a P/E of 1 though. I'm seeing a quarter of that profit. currently estimating a CY21 avg thermal sale price of ~A$130/t (API5 still about US$70 less then NEWC6000) and coke of ~A$225. That's not far off what they got in 2018, though production tonnes will be slightly higher. Using their estimated production costs, 790k depreciation and same corporate & financial costs from last year, would give a profit of about 55 - 70 cps. With their typical dividend aim of 40-60% NPAT to dividend, that'd be a a dividend of 24-36cps and would still leave $800m-$1b free cash flow for debt reduction, which would be a solid good result to see if it's anywhere in that ballpark. Is all my rough estimates, so sure it's not accurate, dyor etc.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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