yanks drop- next week for us, page-6

Hiya All...

My current sentiment is short...


I have attached a couple of charts to support my reasons,

Firstly the hourly....



A channel I drew (blue thick Andrew's Pitchfork) has (finally) broken to the downside, during friday night's cash close action.

During this action price also retested the channel from the underside, which happend to coincide with the 21 MA and failed to resume upwards.

Price has also closed (just) below the 50% retrace to the upside (green thick line) which is the 50% mark from the January highs...

Coupled with that...

Price on the hourly is a fair way historically from the 200 period ma (dashed red line) which is getting close to coinciding with the 38% retrace fib level of the decline from the Jan Highs at around 3380.

Personally I am targetting the 3380 level. Potential for further downside is there.. and the thick dotted cross hairs and thick dashed cross hairs show targets of 3300 and 3200 respectively, based on my esoteric targetting methodology using Histogram peaks that occur during divergence...

On this note, this complete rise from 3200 is showing divergence both via the histograms and moving averages of the MACD.

Switching to the daily



The thin orange line is the 13 period moving average.

Observations on lower time values have shown that after breaking the 21 ma in a particular direction, the 13 period ma is retested before resumption of the trend started by the break.

as can be seen on the daily, the 13ma is currently around the 3380 level.

My current thoughts are that we will continue in a downward direction to this point and from there we could bounce/resume uptrend, or break through to retest 21ma, and then bounce (though less likely if 13 MA is broken on first test) or continue down.

I have a profit target of 3380 on my open short position and expect to close it at that level, and see what price does, as I would be very surprised if we don't get a (possibly only minor intraday) bounce at this level, even if we break it eventually.

Of interest... on the stochastic on the daily it is at overbought levels and turning down... On the hourly though, it is at oversold levels, though of course the hourly is influenced by the weakness of signals during cash close.

Cheers n beers

;)