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23/01/15
17:22
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Originally posted by cmonaussie
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MMMJ - YASNY
Q3-10Q shows:
$LOE/Boe = $24.83/Boe (figure noted in 10-Q but does not match up to St of Ops LOE expense $1,459,933 divided by 43,437 Boe )
Prod Taxes = $8.78/Boe
"Lifting Costs" = $33.61/Boe
For Cash Costs add in
G&A/Boe = $27.89/Boe
Interest = $1.93/Boe
"Cash Costs" = $63.43
Average Realized Price/Boe BEFORE derivative settlements (its was taxes are based on anyways) = $75.01/Boe
Cash Margin = $11.58/Boe
Q4 is due by middle Feb (the 10Q that is). That will begin to show what the future looks like absent a price recovery.
The AGM preso has what one presumes to be forward looking "lifting cost" at $29/Boe (biggest influence here is the denominator (Boe produced) as much of the LOE now is probably fixed (?) - as in wells tied into production and operating). Hopefully this comes down further.
While YASNY, this might serve as a preview (?) given what has been released so far.
Average Realized Price Oil for Oct/Nov/Dec from PAA pipeline system is $66.1355; $58.6400; $42.7061
Q4'14 avg = $55.83
Now SSN has made pre-announcement of Q4 production = 48,670 BOE
Using the gas price for Q3 of $5.43 and the above avg for oil, estimate Q4 Realized Avg before derivatives = $53.18/Boe
Estimated LOE = $29.99
Estimated Taxes = $5.85
Q4 Lifting Cost estimate = $35.84 ( think that seems a little high but we shall see in due course)
Adding in estimates for
G&A = $24.89
Interest = $3.19
Q4 Cash Cost estimate at $63.92 and a Cash Margin of -$8.09 before derivatives!
Shows very clearly to me how non-hedged production is affected. SSN does have Q4 hedges to settle - estimated @ $997,963 .(swaps of 5,098Bbls @$105 and a further 13,616 @$97.92 which together are estimated as settlement of $823,765 and also another 5,098 Bbls @$90 put worth estimated $174,198). Q4 hedges worth in $/Boe terms about $20.50/Boe.
It will soon be available to see and pull apart. Might go some way to explaining the SP. Others do the same math.
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I don't know, perhaps it could be time to release the chokes, me finks.
- Record oil demand, US
- Record oil demand, China
- Traders stocking oil supertankers
- EU printing
- Japan printing
- Trouble in Yemen
- Saudi Arabia?
cheers all