Year 1 Revenue

On the 10th of September 2019 our friends at FiftyOne Capital gave us an update on their poster child, PAR. In this report they mentioned that it is entirely conceivable that in the first full year Zilosul could well be administered to some 10,000 to 50,000 patients.
Amazing numbers but I also dont think its too far fetched. So potentially we may get approval by the TGA let's say just before the end of this year.
This means that by the end of 2021, let's go less than half way in that above range, we may have treated some 25,000 patients here in Aus.

Ok now this got my brain ticking over..how then firstly does that translate to revenue? Well again going a little conservatively at just $200 (instead of a generally mooted $250) per injection, that's some $60 million in revenue!

Ok now we come to the fun bit...USA.

So let's do some basic comparatives...



_{Two markets, we know some rough figures for Aus...let's then extrapolate to US to see what a first year of revenue might be like for them.}


Ok so,
OA affects 2.2 million ¹ people in Aus.
31 Million patients in USA..that's a factor of 14.

Interestingly the population difference factor is exactly 14 so that makes sense. (25 Million in Aus x 14 = 350 Million people in the US)

Let's do this graphically and tabulate it:







Ok now we fill in the X and Y variables using a little comparative maths...
Based on the ratio of populations (we could also use the # of OA sufferers)
The clac for X is... ( 350 Million x 25,000 ) / 25 Million

This gives us X which is 350,000 estimated patients in the first year.

Jeepers...what then is Y?

Well multiply it by some $200 and multiply this by the number of injections (12)...that's a whopping 840 Million USD. $1.2 Billion AUD?!

This kinda dove tails a bit with my last main post on the path to $1 Billion.


CAVEATS

Plenty of them

This is revenue, not profit.
Who knows how it will ramp, it will take time to build.
We may end up doing a deal and 'only' achieve 20% royalty (or less?), but yes there will be upfront and milestone payments if we do a distribution deal.
There will be a time lag between TGA potential approval and FDA approval...
There could be hurdles, delays and who knows what else?

On the other hand there are positives, I haven't included a single Pound for Europe. I also haven't mentioned any revenue for any other indication (Think MPS) and I've gone quite conservative in numbers and dollars here too.

DYOR...maybe I'm too optimistic? Cut the figures in half...still compelling.



REFERENCES

1) https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/arthritis-other-musculoskeletal-conditions/osteoarthritis/data
2) FiftyOne Capital