Hi @MozzarcI like your calculations (Post 14/2/2020 21:13) but I...

Hi @Mozzarc

I like your calculations (Post 14/2/2020 21:13) but I think we should be including Europe in those calculations as PAR is doing a joint application for Europe EMA (as you've mentioned) and America FDA. So here's my very conservative (but optimistic numbers because they assume PAR is given the go ahead in USA, Europe and Australia).

Estimated OA sufferers
Europe 40 million
USA 31 million
Aus 2.2 million
Total 73.2 million

If we assume that only 1% of that market is treated by PAR say in financial year 2025 that's 732,000 people.
If each patient receives 12 injections (8,784,000 injections in total) and the injections cost US$125 each that's total revenue of US$1,098,000,000
Converted to OZ dollars at 0.675 that's approx AUD$1,627,600,000 and if PAR receives 20% of that revenue that's AUD$325,333,333.
PARs expenses in the half year to 31 December 2019 were about $6 million so if we double that, expenses might be $12 million for the full year FY20 and if we double it again to take into account increased costs up to 2025 (excluding the cost of the trial which might be substantially subsidised by a Big Pharma partner cheque) then let's say annual expenses are AUD$25 million just for the purposes of this example.

With roughly 200 million shares on issue and an estimated gross profit before tax of AUD$300 million (DYOR) less company tax of 30%, NPAT AUD$200 MILLION or EPS of AUD$1.00 per share (this excludes payments to bene).

With many growth shares trading at multiples of easily 30x EPS that implies a share price for PAR of $30 if all the pieces of the above puzzle come together. CSLs share price was trading at 52x eps (source ASX close 14 Feb 2020) but there are many other market darlings out there that are trading at over 100 times earnings, so PARs sp could be a lot higher (IMO but also subject to major market downturns and the impact these have on share price/earnings multiples).

The estimates used in this example are based on only 1% market penetration. What would happen to PARs share price if they capture market share of 10%plus in Europe, USA and OZ?

In my opinion and as always do your own research.