The extract below from an article published today should give...

The extract below from an article published today should give some insight into what we might expect in the PPX announcement on 28 August. Alongside the departure of the MD of the UK operations, these are indicators that the European numbers for PPX might possibly be somewhat ugly.

Assuming European revenues are about $2bn (a guess), a 9.1% fall (same as Sequana) would be $182m, and assuming a margin of 20% (a guess), that's $36m lost profit.

In reality, I would guess that the PPX revenue decline might be even greater than that, given the changes that have taken place in the business and the adverse publicity PPX has enjoyed. Lets say 15% - that's $60m off the bottom line.

It's going to take a lot of car wraps to fill that hole.

However, we may never know, as PPX since its last published results appears to have elected to reduce the amount of geographic analysis it is sharing with the owners of the business (PPX holders, PXUPA holders, etc). I would guess that in the results published on 28 August they will continue to do so.

All my own guesswork.


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Antalis owner hit by weak demand and prices as losses quadruple

Sequana, the French paper group that owns Arjowiggins and Antalis, has reported a sales slump of 9% in the first half of 2013, citing a

"sharp decline in demand for printing papers in Europe".

According to Sequana, downward price pressure and the fact that the market for printing papers shrank by 8% were the key drivers behind struggling sales at Antalis.

Volumes at Arjowiggins also slipped 8%, with added price pressure contributing to sales sliding 11.2%. Arjo’s Graphic division was hardest hit, with sales falling 42%.

The deteriorating business environment during the first six months of 2013 accelerated the drop in volumes of printing papers in Europe against a backdrop of strong downward pressure on selling prices.