year end target of 2,500 boed on a btu basis

When you think about it, this is a target Antares will never miss, just like the future 2013 target number.

Why? simple, the target doesn't have to be achieved by only drilling a certain number of wells.

Since the company has access to the loan facility it can simply just keep on drilling more and more wells until it makes sure its target number is achieved.

I had actually expected the 2,500 boed on a BTU basis number to be achieved around about now, although it will take several more wells to maintain production above that level.

Lets take a step back and look at how the company has managed to get to this level of production.

5 wells drilled at Big Star, only 4 have really gone into production and the combined level of production hasn't even reached 50 bopd for 2 consecutive months.

North Star 3 wells drilled in 2011 - one lost during drilling and production from the other 2 poor. 3 new wells drilled so far in 2012, with only one reaching production so far and its failed to produce even 900 BO in any of the 1st 2 month's of production.

Southern Star started out with 23 producing wells, after which 8 more wells were drilled in 2011 and added production. In 2012, 13 new wells have been drilled and the first of them entered production in late March, some have yet to come online (I've not included the Debnam 22 well in these numbers).

Lets say all gross production excluding Southern Star is 125boed.

Only one Southern Star well is nearly a year old the Lonestar well, which continues to perform well at around 90boepd.

The rest are under 9 months old, so production levels should be high from them. Yet is it?

Remove the Ray No5 well which has been doing 500 boepd on the BTU basis in May & June and alarm bells start to ring.

Remove the production from the old Southern Star wells of at least 200 boed on the BTU basis and your left with ....

Under 1600 boed, even if they announced there target number tomorrow, from something like 14 new producing wells and 3 more cleaning up.

That sadly works out at under 100 boed per Antares well.

If you were to also exclude the good Live Oak well, the figures become much worse.

Antares production numbers are only holding up due to good performances from several of the wells masking the performance of the other's.

LOTM

It's also worth noting from the June figures on the RRC website just how much Nat Gas is coming from the Ray lease.