good article. i Bring your attention to a couple of points in...

good article. i Bring your attention to a couple of points in the article.

"China might eventually limit exports of other materials, notably rare earths, "

Might and eventually are to very strong qualifiers. MAI is giving lots of wiggle room so yes it could happen but my guess is not in the near future.

Western countries have ramped up support to boost domestic production of critical minerals including rare earths.
In US MP will go into production of High Purity oxides in 2023. At end of 2023 they will be at 50% ~ 75% of Lynas output. Unlike Lynas they will have fully separated and high purity HREO in limited quantities. They will use roasting after C&L which simplifies the processing and cost of separation and purification. There are also other manufactures that are behind both Lynas and MP using much newer processes than Lynas and it will only take money to accelerate the build plans.

"Electric vehicle maker Tesla (TSLA.O) is moving away from rare earths in future models to mitigate environmental and supply risks,"
MB and Maybe BMW already are shipping high end vehicles using non REE motors. Yes they are slightly less efficient slightly larger and heavier but these differences are easily overcome if it means not shipping. In 2012 all the major manufactures spent billions to remove REE from their design, Chinna quickly stopped the embargo because they realized that it would destroy a market they had spent years developing. China is not dumb they will remember clearly what happened a decade ago and avoid causing problems. to a market they have millions invested in. Users of REE motors will tolerate a 2 X maybe even a 5X increase in cost. What they cannot tolerate is stopping production because of lack of parts. Tesla before Model 3 used no REE based motors in their cars.

Conclusion China might eventually limit exports This has the potential to really hurt an industry they have spent Billions on over the last 25 years developing. I think it is clear that their current strategy is to keep prices low to slow the expansion and development of REE outside of China and the development of Non REE motors for use in many different areas, including EVs. I doubt in the next year they will reverse course by starting an embargo, Just does not make sense with what they are doing now. They will play with other markets like GA and GE that they do not have nearly the time and money invested in. Time will tell but what if I am right and you are wrong what happens to your LYC SP? You are counting on China doing something to send up SP, Counting on outside influences is always far more risky than counting on the company you are investing in to turn things around.