The United Nations-mediated peace talks in Kuwait have been suspended for at least the next month if not longer. While the U.N. has been careful to leave the door open to the talks' resumption, there is little likelihood of a political breakthrough in the process given the terms of reference for the process created by U.N. Security Council Resolution 2216. The latter calls for a restoration of the Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi government to power in Sana'a, a demand the alliance of Zaydi Houthi Shiite rebels and the followers of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh refuse to accept.
The Houthis and Saleh formed a council last month to govern the capital and most of north Yemen. This effectively partitions the country between the Shiite-dominated north and east and the Sunni-dominated south and west.
Some commentators in the kingdom are suggesting a fallback option for the war. Riyadh would accept a partition of the country, leaving the Houthis in charge of the north indefinitely while a pro-Saudi southern state gets international legitimacy. This south Yemen state would become a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Saudi Arabia would have de facto control of the crucial Bab al-Mandab Strait in such a scenario. It would be a long-term means to contain the Houthi challenge.
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