I dont agree with the 130 cost base that Gindaldan mentioned to...

I dont agree with the 130 cost base that Gindaldan mentioned to start off with which determines what you would think SP should be. so based on the following assumptions this does not include DSO.

Revenue

IO of 130 USD = 144 AUD + 11% premium = $160 AUD (Premium should be higher but being conservative because everyone thinks it will be lower than the 20%)

cost $80 based on quartely
freight cost $15 based on Gindaldan analysis
debt cost (1.5B * 6% repayments )/*MT per annum = $11 USD = 12.5 AUD

royalties $4 (2.5% of 160)

so cost including debt and royalties you get

80+15+12.5+6= $111.5 AUD

which leaves you with profit before tax of about $48 PT or aproximately 390M PA of which we get 48% so we are on about EPS of 12 give it a 10 X is 1.2

change the figures to 110 USD is 122 AUD which still gives you a .03 x 10 is 30 cents

so basically depending on what you think IO will do you can determine if $1 is possible or not.

IMO I think that IO will stay at about the 120-130 mark and if it does drop to 110 the Exchange rate will be lower than 90 Cents. This does not include DSO.

I am a long term holder average in the 70's and like Gindaldan rode it down to the current SP(bad investment strategy)but I still believe it can be profitable and continue to hold.