Based on a 12 mtpa operation, a 50% interest in IM and 500 million plus issued share balance, even factoring in a nice increase in the i/o price, based on a reasonable pe ratio and allowing for corporate overhead etc it does not look very attractive share price wise.
ARH executives know that and that is why they have been negotiating hard for extra tonnes.
Unless it can start as a 24 million tonne per annum operation it will not generate sufficient net earnings (50% share) to be attractive enough in the first year of operation.
And we have still got at least three years of construction to go yet. Then mediocre net earnings, spread over 500 million plus shares.
Unless they start with 24mtpa it just aint worth holding.
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