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Share
05/09/09
13:37
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Let's take another look, given the time frame to construction and commissioning has shrunk:
175M shares on issue
8 years of production
potential for 20+ year mine life [via exploration]
Main plant expected to be commissioned within 12 months
of construction commencement
Current resource assessment and market demand provides basis for production of averaging 750ktpa
EBITDA of US$26m per annum
CAPEX to date US$16.1 million
Base case CAPEX $54.1m
Needs US$43M
Just received debt facility of $US30M
Plus raising US$15M maybe at US$0.15 per share is another 120M shares
Total shares = 300M
D=US$3 I=$3 T=30%
From US$26 EBITDA, @ 85 cents exchange, NPAT = AUS$16.5M pa, EPS = 5.5 cents
Share price target at full production = 55 cents
Could be producing in first quarter 2011 calender year
Therefore potential 4 bagger over 1.5 to 2 years
If cost blow out then need to raise another $12M or another 50M shares @ 25 cents
EPS falls to 4.7 cents
Remove the bank interest and EPS rises to 5.4 to 6.3 cents
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