Thanks Coppertop - yes I missed the fine print there.All...

Thanks Coppertop - yes I missed the fine print there.

All properties get a valuation update every six months, but only the ones that have moved by more than 5% get re-valued in the accounts plus the ones that are due for a three yearly full valuation report (not sure whether the full valuation happens on a property-by-property basis over time or across the whole portfolio in one hit).

So worst case, presuming the other properties all fell by a little less than 5% they would only constitute about another 3% fall in the portfolio value to 31 Dec.

Perhaps there is hope here - if the average fall has only been 4% this 6 months, then could probably expect about a 6% fall in portfolio valuation for the period, which would probably leave them inside debt covenants and with estimated equity of $310m - about 61cps, so trading at a 43% discount. (However, if the average fall has been 5%, that might capture more revaluations and push things over the line.)

Presuming a fairer discount to NTA in a more stable market is 10%, perhaps a theoretical fair value is 55cps - that could suggest that at 35cps, the market is building in about a 43% chance of AJA becoming worthless. (okay, simplistic).

At this point, I'll change my sentiment to more neutral - but I'd rather wait and try to buy in on the valuation news... more than likely it will be another downgrade, but if the extent is no more severe than above and news out of Japan remains positive, then it could be a good entry.