Note the following is all on a calendar year rather than...

Note the following is all on a calendar year rather than financial - for simplicity and in US$ - but you get the point

yes ACR will likely not achieve the US50m milestone payment this year which is linked to a worldwide Axiron net saletarget of US$220. Last year Axiron achieved US$178m in sales starting from a q1 result of US$37.1m and growing through the remaining quarters (averaging US$44m per quarter)
In Q1 this year - Axiron achieved c.40m in net sales. The run rate going forward is a little uncertain but it should be able to achieve between US160 to 180m in net sales.

So the will definitely miss the milestone - defer until they achieve the target... but they will receive royalty payments for the sales.

ACR gets 12% of net sales up to US$100m and 14.5% for over.
So for US160 to 180m in net sales they will receive between
US$21m and US$24m in royalties - add 2m for other products and you have total revenue of US$23m to US$26m.

ACR achieves 65% operating profit margins so thats US$15m to US$17m in PBT. less tax gives you between US$10m and US$12m earnings.

Divide by 166 share outstanding and you get a range between US$0.06cps and 0.07cps - this could all be paid as a tax free dividend - but may not given management's propensity to hoard cash... in AUD thats AU$0.067 and AU$0.075cps

now if the market IS WRONG and they do hit that milestone payment at some point - then add another US0.30cps on top and remember they have a further US120m in milestone outside that...

The way i see it - the downside is very much priced in... but if the market is wrong... then there is sig upside to this one.

not for everyone - but worth a punt at 0.77cs in my opinion.

Do you own research - this is not considered investment advice (i have been wrong on this one for a long time :-)!