See Friday's announcement. 5c, this month, 10c after full-year results, assuming various assupmtions are meet.
Most companies on nominal high yields are those whose shareprice has fallen by 50% or more over the last year because of earnings reductions, debt refinancing, asset wtite downs etc. In many cases, its likely dividends may be cut, reducing actually dividends to more usual levels.
IMF on the other hand, has had substantial earnings growth, excess cash, clean balance sheet, and likely to continue its earning growth over the next two three years, as long its conservative case selection and competitive advantages are maintained.
Short term, I would say there might be a 50-50% chance of the Centro mediation resulting in settlement by April-May (but obviously these chances are really only known to insiders) and Centro is a big case. These are number of other cases due to be completed by mid 2009 - some are cases where its mostly a process of completing administrative processes (eg SoG, ION), in other cases its when trials should finished or appeals completed. Some cases (eg maybe ABC learing, Allco etc) will likely take another couple of years, if they proceed at all. AWB and the big Pan Pharmaceuticals case should hopeful get to trial in the second half 2009.
I would say that they will be a strengthening of the traditional bankruptcy / liquidation cases over 2010-2012 as the current downturn and credit crunch continues to bite.
Anyway, will be interesting to see the quarterly investment portfolio report when it comes out this week or next.
I hold IMF. Do your own research of course.
angus
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