ying and yang, page-30

Thank you Xfire.

I finish Uni June 2012... so, I'm looking for a stock that I think will give me a return of at least 9%+10% = 19% per annum between now and then. Well, until I want to be a house a couple of months later than that.

Whether or not QBE will do this, is something I have to consider. Taking into account the opinions of others can be helpful to an extent. Hence, why I'm here.

That, and, I really can't be bothered studying for my corporate finance theory exam on Monday.

"If I was you, I would be concerned that the timeframe of 2 years would be too short."
Is one consideration. In reality, I have until, say, August 2012 till I want to buy a house. So, about 2.75 years. I'm thinking that is long enough for QBE to return to an appropriate SP.

*IF* I could grab it at $21 now... I think I would be laughing, and very likely see a >19% return per year being likely from that sort of price, over my time-range.

At $22.50, it becomes a little bit less likely.... but, I still see it performing better than my margin loan of 9%ish... so, the ability to buy a ASX20 stock that I'm pretttty damn sure will be at least somewhat beneficial for me is nice... EVEN IF I don't hit 19% return. Ofcourse, buying QBE on margin has the opportunity cost of not buying something else that will return >19%... but, given that, IMHO, QBE is not particularly risky... that's something I have to weigh up.

If QBE give 6% dividends, and have 5% capital growth from 22.50 for the next 2.75 years, and my margin loan averages 9.5%.... I still make a bit of profit... but, more importantly, I've got a fair bit of upside potential. Anything above $26 in 2.75 years, and I'm laughing.

However, like I said, buying on margin, makes me want to buy at it's short-term low... especially since USA may not have recovered within 2.75 years, etc.