"Dont just look at one factor within a business, especially one...

"Dont just look at one factor within a business, especially one that is outside the control of management."

For a short-term entry, surely this is important?

I am thinking, strongly, about buying $3k worth on margin... not a particularly substantial amount... but, with the potential to increase by around 50% within 2 years, it's not bad.

Int rates, yes.
hurricane season, no.
Bolt-on, to some extent, yes.
Int rates, yes.
Elders acquisition, yes.

At 95c, which is now less than 2 cents away (as opposed to the >3 cents it was).... I can see this affecting QBE.

I guess my MAIN question is... is that thought accurate?

As in:
I say a rising AUD is bad for QBE.
You guys say, it doesn't matter if it's bad for QBE, as, long-term its a great company.

I agree that it's a great company, thats why I want to invest in it (I think)... BUT, can someone please help me out with my actual questions?

If the AUD hits $1, will QBE SP drop dramatically?
What if it hits 95c?
If it hits $1.15 (unlikely, but)... will QBE even be profitable? (I think it will, a mate seems to think it won't... he's done more research than me).

Does HC think QBE will go down in the short term, regardless of fundamentals, largely due to a rising AUD? If not, why not?