Markets moving higher. I mentioned that my model says that the range for XJO cash is between 5600-5620. We've surpassed 5600 and touched 5615. I suspect that we will see 5620 before 2:30 PM tomorrow before RBA decision.
If markets want to push beyond 5620, I think it'll require RBA support. Can't see further upside without some central bank steroid.
Jo Masters ANZ says that RBA will cut due to factors beyond CPI print - jobs, declining wage growth, unemployment, falling crude prices and meat prices. Lower AUD in past quarter lead to higher import costs, but prices were not passed to consumers due to increased competition in retail sector. This is adding to disinflation pressure. Retail management is offsetting import costs by applying pressure on salary and employment. Jo predicts that RBA has nothing to lose by cutting rates. But Westpac is going by CPI print and expects a hold.
BOE is also expected to ease this week per Gavyn Davies models.
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