Really solid question and definitely something investors should be thinking about as the clock ticks down.
If ESR isn’t able to deliver the 500Mt JORC-compliant limestone resource by 30 September, there are a few likely implications — but I don’t think it’s a case of the whole deal collapsing.
First and foremost:
REM clearly isn’t speculative. They’re a middleman with buyers lined up — they want the product, and they want it fast.
But they’ve also tied their minimum offtake rights to that 500Mt JORC milestone. So it’s a legal and commercial line in the sand.
If ESR misses that deadline:
REM has the right to walk, but may not want to.
If drilling is well advanced and the resource is clearly there, even if not fully JORC-defined, it’s entirely possible the parties could restructure the deal or agree to a short extension. REM needs supply; the limestone won’t disappear.
Reputational damage for ESR.
It would be a hit to credibility, no question. A missed public milestone linked to a commercial partner doesn’t go unnoticed, especially when tied to potential future funding or offtake. That said, if the delay is marginal and the story intact, the long-term value still stands.
Two-rig strategy?
Possible — but realistically, doubling up crews and running two full rigs in Timor-Leste is expensive and logistically difficult. More likely, they optimise the current program to target both limestone and manganese simultaneously, especially since the manganese sits directly beneath the limestone, as illustrated in Keith’s post.
That sort of vertical targeting would allow them to maximise each hole, hitting two birds with one drill collar, without dramatically increasing cost or complexity.
But here’s where I’m personally looking for clear direction from Chris Daws as Managing Director.
I’d really like him to step out and explain:
• How exactly is this JORC going to be achieved with just 12,992m of drilling?
• Is it possible under the current scope?
• Has contingency planning been done in case they fall behind?
• Who actually set these deadlines — was it REM pushing the pace, or did ESR take the lead?
• And most importantly — how do you plan to bring this together in such a tight window?
Because someone is in a rush to get their hands on this limestone — that’s clear. Whether it’s REM’s buyers or a broader regional supply issue, the dots are there if you look. The demand is real.
Now we just need to understand how ESR plans to deliver — technically, logistically, and contractually.
This isn’t just about hitting a date — it’s about showing that the planning behind the scenes is sound, and that the company is executing with purpose.
If Daws lays that out in clear terms, a lot of uncertainty disappears.
REM has the buyers. ESR has the ground.
Now it’s about clarity, execution, and leadership.
