I only have a small holding and trying to time entry and exit...

I only have a small holding and trying to time entry and exit based on speculation is a mugs game which almost always ends poorly for us retail investors so I’ll just park my shares and wait. I don’t see international travel until 2022 and domestic travel will be weak in 2021 but by the end of 2021 the covid fatigue and vaccine programs will mean people will be booking holidays by mid to late late 2021 12-months in advance to head o/s in mid to late 2022. This means webjet should start seeing revenue flow back into their coffers by mid to late 2021 even though o/s travel won’t physically resume until 2022.

for what it’s worth, I think even 2022 o/s travel will be below ‘normal’ levels due to reduced business-related and elderly travel.

it’s said that management destroyed so much shareholder value through poorly timed massive equity dilution, but I do t see equity dilution as likely (but yes it’s always a risk and you can’t usually predict when it happens) in the next 6 months even with the maturing debt.

the long term is bright for webjet in terms of eps growth so I’ll just accept the risk of further capital loss and dilution and the mediocre short term returns with the hope of capturing all the upside when it recovers, like for example happened recently to orecobre which I held through lows for 2 years then it has suddenly recovered hard and fast well before the fundamentals have fully evolved to support it and now it is 5.70 so has jumped over 200%.

my point is that when webjet runs, it may do so hard and fast well before the travel story has fully recovered, and so I would rather wait than try to time the recovery and probably miss out on a fair chunk of the upside by being too late.