Competition in the dispensary market is high, but the barriers to entry for growers is actually really high as well. Growers need to purchase their facility and come up with strong business plan before they can put in a growers licence proposal. The time it takes to be approved either bankrupts most businesses before they start due to the cost of renting the facility for they just start growing for the black market.
For the most part, only the larger corporate companies have the financial backing to see their growers projects to commercial production.
I actually agree, with you, Aurora will be more like $20-30 billion, due to the fact that by increasing production, the average sale price will decrease and there will be diminishing returns. Although, I believe I read that Aurora secured another growing site in Germany. Germany is meant to have a lot of cannabis smokers, plus it has 2.5 times the people of Canada, so there is a few factors to consider.
As for Cann Group, I am an analyst that covered the stock, and my numbers suggest that if Cann group were to become an oligopoly, with combined 14760 square meters of growing area, the company will produce around 38 tonnes of cannabis retailing for $11/gram, the revenue would be $355 million, profit would be around $150 million. At a PE of 20 the market cap would be $3 billion and the stock price would be at $21.
If a takeover were to happen, there would only be limited upside for investors (give or take 30%).
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