You make a lot of assumptions about the future, some could be right, some maybe not. Companies can already import medical marijuana products so there is not a total import barrier for this market. Maybe raw material (flowers) will be banned from import, maybe not. But if local companies can already import finished product made from cheaper overseas raw material then that would logically affect locally made product and flower prices.
And not sure whether you are quoting wholesale or retail price estimates per gram, or referring exclusively to MM prices, rec prices, or a combination of the two, but I do disagree with some of your numbers. And something else to keep in mind is govt taxes on top of the price, from what I saw in California recently.
You might find these links interesting (US$ values):
CANNABIS BENCHMARKS WEEKLY REPORT -- PUBLISHED MAY 4, 2018 - "In grams, the Spot price was $2.87, and the simple average price was $3.12" -
https://www.cannabisbenchmarks.com/weekly-report
WA average wholesale price per gram, approx. US$3.50 -
https://www.topshelfdata.com/industry/wa/price
Will wholesale cannabis slide to US$500 a pound in California’s regulated recreational market?
https://mjbizdaily.com/will-californias-regulated-market-see-drop-500-pound-wholesale-cannabis/
Not saying you're wrong as I tend to agree with your general theory, just think you might be over estimating possible prices per gram, which flows on to affect your other numbers down the track.
