@Genghis_Noob "Those percentages were survivability of infection, regardless of measures taken."
No. Those percentages assume that you can give the same level of care when the entire population has Covid as you can right now when only a very small percentage of the population has it.
But that is absolutely not true.
Let's take NSW right now as an example.
Right now there are 116 COVID patients in ICU (Which by the way is 14% of 825 adult ICU bed capacity available in NSW)
1 out of about every 20 cases of Covid in NSW is in hospital.
1 out of about every 100 cases is in ICU.
Active cases are doubling every 10 days right now.
ICU cases are doubling every 15 days.
That's with all the lockdowns in place. Without them ICU and hospitals would be overwhelmed already, and people who can't get access to care would be dying much faster.
Even with the current lockdown, we may have to start trying to ramp up ICU very soon (remember we need ICU for things other than Covid).
Problem is that not that many nurses are trained for ICU, so ramping isn't easy. Not to mention that any time someone makes a mistake you can lose a whole ward of highly trained ICU nurses to quarantine. Then you are really short staffed.
People are being kept alive because of access to modern medicine. If we can't keep up that level of care, the people who need access to ICU but can't get it will die. Even some of the people from the 1 in 20 group who need hospital care but not ICU may die.
That's when everything we're trying to prevent from happening will happen, and statistics will start showing the true danger of covid.
